Ifs, Buts and Maybes

Tony Grant - his presence will be missed in midfield

Somehow, this year, the big kick-off seems to have crept up on us quietly, and has almost taken me a little by surprise. Perhaps because of Cricket’s Ashes series stealing the backpages, or because last season tailed off in a manner hardly likely to leave many begging for more; I’m not sure. There have certainly been moments when Burnley’s alarming lack of personnel actually left me wishing it could be postponed until a couple more players have been signed.

But anyway, it is here. Last season was, not to put too fine a point on it, dull. We stayed up, finishing perhaps two or three places higher in the pecking order than could be expected, and had a few memorable cup outings. The rest – the detail which fills in the scant outline of a long season - can be consigned to the dustbin.

Comparing the squad which started twelve months ago and that now is probably a futile exercise, but what the hell. The immediately striking difference is that a year ago, we were heavily reliant on one brilliant player – Robbie Blake – who would be coveted by every other club in the division: now, we have no-one of comparable individual ability, but, on paper at least, a team-orientated attacking approach which should offer a greater combined threat. The good news is that, as last season, the defence looks pretty sound, although time will tell how much we will miss the shielding presence of Tony Grant in midfield.

But there is, well, a but. A big one, actually. We simply don’t have the bodies. We used 27 last season in total, and at the moment we have fourteen. It may be one more than at the corresponding stage last season, but the introduction of the transfer window soon negates any head-start that might give. It is simply not enough to dispel the vision of a Burnley team trotting out without eleven recognised and fit professionals - and the reassurances that we should ‘trust SC’ smack a little of Nero, fiddling while Rome burned.

In the time between this column being written, and 3pm on Saturday, Steve Cotterill, needs to sign at least two more players. Then he probably needs another before the end of August. He may have that elusive third striker in the shape of Luton Shelton, and we must hope that some of the other rumours flying about come to fruition, and fast. Even then, with seventeen senior players plus a couple of encouraging youngsters, Cotterill will be flying by the seat of his pants, without the comfort of a strong youth team to fall back on this year in cases of dire emergency.

So what are we to make of the signings who have arrived? In many ways, they are precisely the type of player we might have wished for. We lacked physicality last season. We lacked pace and penetration down the flanks. We lacked goals from midfield. All those flaws have been addressed, even if three signings are unknown quantities. Yet not even that should surprise us. It has long been argued that the future for clubs like Burnley is to work on the basis that every League One club, or Premiership released list, has players capable of succeeding in this division, and cherry-pick them.

Danny K - one of the three unknown quantities signed

So that is exactly the policy that Danny K, Wade Elliot and Garreth O’Connor represent. It is upon them that we are probably pinning our hopes of attacking flair this season, along with the smooth touch of Micah Hyde at the heart of the midfield. Gifton and Ade are to provide the battering ram up top, even if their rather blunt pre-season form provides little clue to the truth that they have, in fact, played together before.

I do get the impression that Gifton and Ade are coming in for a hard time already, which is unfortunate, and undeserved. Pre-season form is rarely an accurate forecast of the season ahead – Ian Moore used to do quite well at this time of year – and Ade’s goalscoring record in this division is actually better than one in three. That equates to fifteen plus goals a season: no, we haven’t got a twenty-a-season man, but then there were only actually five clubs in this league last year who did. You either buy a proven one for over a million pounds, which we haven’t got, or you unearth a gem – which is fine, but a risk only worth taking if you have a player like Ade to rely on first.

The honest truth is that we have the makings of a good squad, and one in which almost every player has signed in for this season and next. But we aren’t there yet. On to these bare bones must be grafted a squad, with options. And at the moment, all predictions for next season must be predicated on ifs, buts and maybes: if we stay clear of injuries, if we get a couple more bodies, if those unknown quantities prove themselves – then maybe we can do pretty well. But the honest truth is we just don’t know.

The nagging suspicion is that, yet again, we will be safe by March, out of the cup about the same time, and once again will spend April discussing what might happen next summer rather than concentrating on performances on the field. The likelihood is that the team we will see will be the disciplined product of a strong team ethic, rather than vibrant and exciting, maybe just a little more adventurous than last season but ultimately similar.

That is probably a solid result. After the intoxicating days when money seemed to grow on trees around Turf Moor, when the first team shone but the fabric behind the façade rotted slowly away, Steve Cotterill seems determined to put the whole of the house in order, and he is absolutely right. Unfortunately, that means we can forget any dreams of a promotion assault.

But that probably isn’t realistic for a club like Burnley, these days, anyway. The fact is, we are a modest first division club, currently holding our own. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t dream or aspire. But it does put in a sober light what we can really expect the club, the management and the players to achieve, the demands for a twenty goal striker and football from the black-and-white era.

Anyway. It is only August. So here goes. We’ll sign Luton Shelton. He’ll be used initially from the bench, where his pace will cause havoc. He’ll eventually end up starting half the games, and our three strikers will, between them, contribute forty five goals. Gaz O’Connor will hit ten, Wade a few, and we’ll grab the odd one from set pieces. At the other end, we’ll concede sod-all, and big Frank will avoid suspension all year long. Then, one fine evening in May, we’ll book promotion away somewhere, in a re-arranged game in the last midweek of the season, with 8,000 Clarets there and a late winner from Graham Branch, or whoever else emerges as the boo-boy this season.

There. I feel better for that. Now roll on Crewe on Saturday. It’s back, once again, and there is, always, just that flimsiest chance. Come on you Clarets.